Hussein Dey 0–1 RC Arba: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Hussein Dey

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

RC Arba

5/27/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 32Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hussein Dey44%

×Draw28%

RC Arba28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hussein DeyExpected goals in this matchRC Arba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

Hussein Dey

1.31

RC Arba

0.98

Hussein Dey creates 34% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 33 away

1.05

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Hussein Dey

1.05

RC Arba

0.82

allows per match

Hussein Dey

1.14

RC Arba

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hussein Dey+0.00on par

RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hussein Dey ↓

RC Arba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hussein Dey or draw

72%

Hussein Dey or RC Arba

72%

Draw or RC Arba

56%

Winning margin

Hussein Dey wins by 2+

20%

RC Arba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hussein Dey 1+ goals

73%

Hussein Dey 2+ goals

38%

Hussein Dey 3+ goals

14%

RC Arba 1+ goals

62%

RC Arba 2+ goals

26%

RC Arba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hussein Dey (draw refunded)

61%

RC Arba (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hussein Dey at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hussein Dey attack 1.05 + RC Arba defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

RC Arba attack 0.82 + Hussein Dey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hussein Dey scores more

44%

level

28%

RC Arba scores more

28%

Hussein Dey at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hussein Dey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff