Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RC Arba vs CR Belouizdad — Ligue 1 2018

RC Arba
RC Arba
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
12/28/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

RC Arba36%
×Draw28%
CR Belouizdad36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Arba
1.19
CR Belouizdad
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 123 away

creates per match

RC Arba
1.61
CR Belouizdad
1.22

allows per match

RC Arba
1.15
CR Belouizdad
0.77

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par
CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

CR Belouizdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw
64%
RC Arba or CR Belouizdad
72%
Draw or CR Belouizdad
64%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+
15%
CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals
70%
RC Arba 2+ goals
33%
RC Arba 3+ goals
12%
CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
70%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
33%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)
50%
CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.77 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.61 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.19

CR Belouizdad attack 1.22 + RC Arba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

RC Arba scores more
36%
level
28%
CR Belouizdad scores more
36%

RC Arba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RC Arba vs CR Belouizdad

CR Belouizdad beat RC Arba 4-0 in Ligue 1 on December 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf in Larbaâ.