RC Arba 1–2 CR Belouizdad: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

RC Arba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

CR Belouizdad

A. Kessili 15'

K. Merzougui 90+5'

M. Belkhiter 6'

12/10/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Mohamed Reggaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

RC Arba37%

×Draw27%

CR Belouizdad36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC ArbaExpected goals in this matchCR Belouizdad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.21

RC Arba

1.22

CR Belouizdad

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 122 away

1.66

creates per match

1.23

1.19

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

RC Arba

1.66

CR Belouizdad

1.23

allows per match

RC Arba

1.19

CR Belouizdad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

CR Belouizdad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw

64%

RC Arba or CR Belouizdad

73%

Draw or CR Belouizdad

63%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+

16%

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals

70%

RC Arba 2+ goals

34%

RC Arba 3+ goals

12%

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

70%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

34%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)

50%

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.78 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.66 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.22

CR Belouizdad attack 1.23 + RC Arba defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

RC Arba scores more

37%

level

27%

CR Belouizdad scores more

36%

RC Arba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Belkhiter

15'

A. Kessili

46'

A. Bourdim← M. Benhamou

62'

K. Merzougui← Anas Al Misrati

65'

A. Haddad← A. Kessili

72'

Z. Toumi Sief← A. Berkoun

72'

H. Selmi← A. Bourdim

73'

B. Frifer← O. Kismoun

90+5'

K. Merzougui

RC

CR

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kessili

Yahia

▼

Kismoun

Manager: S. Messaoud

65'▲A. Haddad←▼A. Kessili

72'▲Z. Toumi Sief←▼A. Berkoun

73'▲B. Frifer←▼O. Kismoun

RC Arba substitutes

HaddadSiefFrifer

Manager: S. Raho

46'▲A. Bourdim←▼M. Benhamou

62'▲K. Merzougui←▼Anas Al Misrati

72'▲H. Selmi←▼A. Bourdim

CR Belouizdad substitutes

BourdimMerzouguiSelmi