RB Leipzig U19 1–0 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

RB Leipzig U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unterhaching U19

L. Hesch 20' (OG)

2/16/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 3Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RB Leipzig U1958%

×Draw20%

Unterhaching U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.31

RB Leipzig U19

2.25

Unterhaching U19

1.31

RB Leipzig U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

2.54

creates per match

1.33

1.29

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.54

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

1.29

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

78%

RB Leipzig U19 or Unterhaching U19

80%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

42%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

36%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

89%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

65%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

39%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

73%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

38%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.29 · 72 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.54 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.25

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

22%

RB Leipzig U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

L. HeschOwn goal

63'

63'

73'

73'

73'

D. Michelini← S. Weiß

86'

D. Klapija← A. Gerth

86'

L. Schößler← R. Ramšak

86'

L. Falck← N. Hodžić

RB

Unterhaching

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Heidinger

63'▲F. Heyer←▼V. Gebel

73'▲L. Hennig←▼J. Norbye

73'▲L. Šarić←▼L. Voufack

86'▲D. Klapija←▼A. Gerth

86'▲L. Schößler←▼R. Ramšak

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

HeyerHennigŠarićKlapijaSchößlerJanoschLangsteiner

Manager: A. Haidl

63'▲J. Adilji←▼J. Eckl

73'▲D. Michelini←▼S. Weiß

86'▲L. Falck←▼N. Hodžić

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

AdiljiMicheliniFalckSchweinsteigerBracherMeinerKaradža

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 1–0 Unterhaching U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Unterhaching U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 16, 2025.

Goals: L. Hesch (20' o.g.).

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.

RB Leipzig U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 1–0 Unterhaching U19