RB Leipzig U19 2–0 Eintracht Braunsch U19

RB Leipzig U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eintracht Braunsch U19

N. Mekonnen 90+2'

E. Majetschak 17'

4/7/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 22Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RB Leipzig U1963%

×Draw18%

Eintracht Braunsch U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunsch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.32

RB Leipzig U19

2.53

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.32

RB Leipzig U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 55 away

2.55

creates per match

1.38

1.27

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.55

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.38

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

1.27

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

81%

RB Leipzig U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19

82%

Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19

37%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

42%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

92%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

71%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

46%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

73%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

38%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.51 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.55 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.53

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.38 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

19%

RB Leipzig U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

E. Majetschak

25'

F. Vy-Ngoc← A. Vedamanikam

28'

N. Kosanić← A. Vojtenko

71'

M. Hoppe← L. Krüger

79'

N. Fontaine← E. Aslan

83'

T. Töpken← J. Fiedler

90'

F. Schimmel← E. Majetschak

90+1'

T. Heike← P. Siemer

90+2'

N. Mekonnen

RB

Eintracht

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Klauß

71'▲M. Hoppe←▼L. Krüger

79'▲N. Fontaine←▼E. Aslan

90'▲F. Schimmel←▼E. Majetschak

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

HoppeFontaineSchimmelBornDauterStahl

Manager: S. Eickel

25'▲F. Vy-Ngoc←▼A. Vedamanikam

28'▲N. Kosanić←▼A. Vojtenko

83'▲T. Töpken←▼J. Fiedler

90+1'▲T. Heike←▼P. Siemer

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

Vy-NgocKosanićTöpkenHeikeBartelsSeefeldtErdmann

Match Recap: RB Leipzig U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 7, 2018.

Goals: E. Majetschak (17'), N. Mekonnen (90+2').

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.

RB Leipzig U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: RB Leipzig U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19