RB Leipzig U19 2–1 Crvena Zvezda U19

RB Leipzig U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crvena Zvezda U19

L. Šarić 87'

S. Schierack 81'

V. Vukojević 47'

10/25/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

RB Leipzig U1940%

×Draw22%

Crvena Zvezda U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchCrvena Zvezda U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.73

RB Leipzig U19

1.80

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

0.83

creates per match

1.38

2.08

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

0.83

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.38

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.08

Crvena Zvezda U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

63%

RB Leipzig U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19

78%

Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19

60%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

21%

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

83%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

54%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

27%

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

82%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

52%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 0.83 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.80

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

37%

RB Leipzig U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Cvetković← D. Markočević

34'

S. Schierack

47'

V. Vukojević↳ L. Lečić

61'

A. Petrović← V. Vukojević

62'

M. Ostojić← U. Tegeltija

67'

J. Sachse← A. Bayindir

71'

T. Kohler

78'

Y. Eduardo

78'

V. Draskic

80'

S. Radujko← J. Šljivić

80'

M. Bubanj← A. Maksimović

81'

L. Šarić← A. Bulland

81'

S. Schierack↳ L. Šarić

87'

L. Šarić↳ J. Sachse

90+1'

T. Kaufmann

90+4'

A. Krause← T. Meyer

RB

Crvena

12

Draškić

6

Vidojević

5

Vukičević

16

A

Lečić

10

▼

Šljivić

20

Miranović

11

▼

Maksimovi

19

▼

Tegeltija

14

Gojkov

7

⚽

▼

Vukojević

9

▼

Markočevi

33

Dickes

15

▼

13

4

25

8

⚽

Schierack

14

▼

Bulland

6

Lenz

17

▼

Bayindir

11

Kaufmann

9

Eduardo

Manager: M. Baum

67'▲J. Sachse←▼A. Bayindir

81'▲L. Šarić←▼A. Bulland

90+4'▲A. Krause←▼T. Meyer

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

16Sachse27Šarić12Krause2Havrylenko5Hennig22Janosch28Kponton

Manager: N. Milijaš

30'▲A. Cvetković←▼D. Markočević

61'▲A. Petrović←▼V. Vukojević

62'▲M. Ostojić←▼U. Tegeltija

80'▲S. Radujko←▼J. Šljivić

80'▲M. Bubanj←▼A. Maksimović

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

15Cvetković8Petrović2Ostojić18Radujko17Bubanj4Milosavljević1Marinković