Crvena Zvezda U19 0–1 RB Leipzig U19

Crvena Zvezda U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

RB Leipzig U19

Y. Eduardo 73'

11/7/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Crvena Zvezda U1944%

×Draw27%

RB Leipzig U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.04

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.35

RB Leipzig U19

1.04

Crvena Zvezda U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.07

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

RB Leipzig U19

1.00

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

RB Leipzig U19

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda U19 or draw

71%

Crvena Zvezda U19 or RB Leipzig U19

73%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

56%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

20%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

74%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

39%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

15%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

65%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

28%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

60%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.07 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

RB Leipzig U19 attack 1.00 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

44%

level

27%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

29%

Crvena Zvezda U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

P. Kühnhardt← S. Mohammad

45+2'

A. Maksimovic

45+2'

J. Norbye

69'

N. Jatta← A. Bulland

69'

A. Bayindir← L. Šarić

70'

D. Miranović← A. Maksimović

70'

U. Tegeltija← N. Gojkov

73'

Y. Eduardo↳ P. Kühnhardt

77'

M. Bubanj← N. Vidojević

77'

A. Avdić← L. Stojsavljević

79'

P. Kuhnhardt

89'

J. Sachse← T. Kaufmann

Crvena

RB

33

Dickes

19

▼

5

4

25

8

14

▼

Bulland

6

Lenz

27

▼

Šarić

11

▼

Kaufmann

9

⚽

Eduardo

12

Draškić

6

▼

Vidojević

5

Vukičević

4

Milosavlj

3

▼

10

8

15

11

▼

Maksimovi

14

▼

Gojkov

7

Vukojević

Manager: N. Milijaš

70'▲D. Miranović←▼A. Maksimović

70'▲U. Tegeltija←▼N. Gojkov

77'▲M. Bubanj←▼N. Vidojević

77'▲A. Avdić←▼L. Stojsavljević

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

20Miranović19Tegeltija9Bubanj13Avdić16Lečić18Radujko1Višnjić

Manager: M. Baum

41'▲P. Kühnhardt←▼S. Mohammad

69'▲N. Jatta←▼A. Bulland

69'▲A. Bayindir←▼L. Šarić

89'▲J. Sachse←▼T. Kaufmann

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

7Kühnhardt21Jatta17Bayindir16Sachse2Havrylenko44Aé12Krause

UEFA Youth League: Crvena Zvezda U19 0–1 RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Crvena Zvezda U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2023.

Goals: Y. Eduardo (73').

The match was played at Stadion Event Place in Beograd.

Crvena Zvezda U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Crvena Zvezda U19 0–1 RB Leipzig U19