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RB Bragantino vs Blooming — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Blooming
Blooming
I. Pitta 90', 64'
Fernando Santos 16' (pen)
M. Villarroel 53' (pen)
R. Hinojosa 45'
4/17/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

RB Bragantino73%
×Draw18%
Blooming8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino
2.07
Blooming
0.53

RB Bragantino creates 291% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino
2.00
Blooming
0.29

allows per match

RB Bragantino
0.76
Blooming
2.14

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.00on par
Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Blooming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw
92%
RB Bragantino or Blooming
82%
Draw or Blooming
27%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+
48%
Blooming wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals
87%
RB Bragantino 2+ goals
61%
RB Bragantino 3+ goals
34%
Blooming 1+ goals
41%
Blooming 2+ goals
10%
Blooming 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)
90%
Blooming (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Blooming away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 2.00 + Blooming defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Blooming attack 0.29 + RB Bragantino defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

RB Bragantino scores more
73%
level
18%
Blooming scores more
8%

RB Bragantino at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
I. PittaRB BragantinoRB Bragantino · F
9.0

Match Events

16'
Fernando SantosPenalty
36'
Ignacio Sosa
37'
Danny Bejarano
45'
R. Hinojosa↳ D. Bejarano
46'
Marcelinho← Yuri Leles
46'
A. Oliveros← D. Bejarano
46'
M. Villarroel← M. Enoumba
48'
Vinicinho
50'
Ignacio Sosa
50'
Ignacio Sosa
53'
M. VillarroelPenalty
56'
Gabriel Valverde
60'
I. Pitta← Fernando Santos
60'
Lucas Barbosa← Rodriguinho
61'
Diago Giménez
61'
Diago Giménez
61'
Diago Giménez
64'
I. Pitta↳ R. Tavares
71'
Esdras Mendoza← R. Hinojosa
71'
D. Duran← A. Vasquez
76'
Marcelinho Braz
78'
Juninho Capixaba← Vinicinho
79'
J. Carrasco← J. Valverde
80'
Eric Ramires← Fabinho
90'
I. Pitta↳ Gustavo Marques

Possession

56%RB

Shots

29RB

Pass accuracy

52%RB

Statistics

RBBlooming
Overview
56%Possession44%
29Total Shots13
3.84Expected Goals (xG)1.99
8Corners5
17Fouls15
Shots
29Total Shots13
11On Target5
14Off Target4
4Blocked4
19Inside Box7
10Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
368Total Passes299
302Accurate Passes228
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
1.56Goals Prevented1.56
Discipline
17Fouls15
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
3Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: RB Bragantino 3–2 Blooming

RB Bragantino beat Blooming 3-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 17, 2026.

Goals: Fernando Santos (16' pen), R. Hinojosa (45'), M. Villarroel (53' pen), I. Pitta (64', 90').

RB Bragantino controlled possession (56%) and registered 29 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques in Bragança Paulista.