RB Bragantino 4–0 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie A

RB Bragantino

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avai

Praxedes 90'

Helinho 87'

Alerrandro 76'

Luan Candido 70'

7/9/2022

Serie A · Round 16Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

RB Bragantino57%

×Draw24%

Avai19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB BragantinoExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.89

RB Bragantino

1.71

Avai

0.89

RB Bragantino creates 92% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 101 away

1.54

creates per match

0.74

1.04

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

RB Bragantino

1.54

Avai

0.74

allows per match

RB Bragantino

1.04

Avai

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.00on par

Avai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw

81%

RB Bragantino or Avai

76%

Draw or Avai

43%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

31%

Avai wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

82%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

51%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

24%

Avai 1+ goals

59%

Avai 2+ goals

22%

Avai 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

74%

Avai (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.04 · 121 matches

Avai away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.89 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 1.54 + Avai defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Avai attack 0.74 + RB Bragantino defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

RB Bragantino scores more

57%

level

24%

Avai scores more

19%

RB Bragantino at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Artur

RB Bragantino · M

9.3

Match Events

38'

Miguel← Hyoran

43'

Raniele

46'

Rodrigo Freitas← Arthur Chaves

65'

Rafael Vaz

67'

Jadsom Silva← Raul

67'

Helinho← Sorriso

67'

Marcinho← Eduardo

68'

Bruno Cortez

70'

Luan Candido↳ Miguel

74'

Vitinho← Jean Pyerre

74'

Dentinho← William Pottker

76'

Alerrandro↳ Artur

81'

Praxedes← Lucas Evangelista

81'

Gabriel Novaes← Alerrandro

82'

Jean Cleber← Raniele

85'

Léo Ortiz

87'

Helinho↳ Aderlan

90'

Praxedes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RBAvai

Overview

46%Possession54%

36Total Shots8

19Corners7

5Fouls6

Shots

36Total Shots8

13On Target2

11Off Target3

12Blocked3

23Inside Box5

13Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

351Total Passes434

268Accurate Passes354

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

5Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0