Avai 1–2 RB Bragantino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Avai

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

RB Bragantino

Kevin 90' (pen)

Helinho 68'

Artur 60'

11/1/2022

Serie A · Round 35Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Avai41%

×Draw27%

RB Bragantino32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchRB Bragantino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Avai

1.35

RB Bragantino

1.17

Avai creates 15% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 124 away

1.27

creates per match

1.04

1.30

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Avai

1.27

RB Bragantino

1.04

allows per match

Avai

1.30

RB Bragantino

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avai+0.00on par

RB Bragantino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

RB Bragantino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avai or draw

68%

Avai or RB Bragantino

73%

Draw or RB Bragantino

59%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

19%

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

74%

Avai 2+ goals

39%

Avai 3+ goals

15%

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

69%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

33%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

56%

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

RB Bragantino away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.43 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.27 + RB Bragantino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

RB Bragantino attack 1.04 + Avai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avai scores more

41%

level

27%

RB Bragantino scores more

32%

Avai at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Artur

RB Bragantino · M

8.0

Match Events

25'

Guilherme Bissoli

51'

Carlos Eduardo

58'

Pablo Dyego← Bissoli

58'

Jean Pyerre← Jean Cleber

60'

Artur

62'

Lucas Ventura

68'

Nathan← Rômulo

68'

Raphael← Eduardo

68'

Helinho↳ Artur

72'

Jadsom Silva← Raul

72'

Sorriso← Carlos Eduardo

77'

Jan Hurtado← Hyoran

78'

Lucas Silva← Renato

90'

Nathan Camargo← Lucas Evangelista

90+1'

Gabriel Novaes← Artur

90'

KevinPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiRB

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots12

2Corners7

17Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots12

1On Target6

6Off Target6

1Blocked0

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

418Total Passes433

313Accurate Passes337

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Avai vs RB Bragantino

RB Bragantino beat Avai 2-1 in Serie A on November 1, 2022.

Goals: Artur (60'), Helinho (68'), Kevin (90' pen).

RB Bragantino controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs RB Bragantino — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Avai vs RB Bragantino