RB Bragantino 1–2 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats

RB Bragantino

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Atletico-MG

Lucas Evangelista 25'

Paulinho 44'

M. Zaracho 42'

6/12/2024

Serie A · Round 8Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

RB Bragantino45%

×Draw28%

Atletico-MG27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB BragantinoExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.96

RB Bragantino

1.32

Atletico-MG

0.96

RB Bragantino creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

RB Bragantino

1.33

Atletico-MG

0.98

allows per match

RB Bragantino

0.93

Atletico-MG

1.31

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.37scores more

Atletico-MG-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw

73%

RB Bragantino or Atletico-MG

72%

Draw or Atletico-MG

55%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

21%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

73%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

38%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

15%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

62%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

25%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 20 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 1.33 + Atletico-MG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atletico-MG attack 0.98 + RB Bragantino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RB Bragantino scores more

45%

level

28%

Atletico-MG scores more

27%

RB Bragantino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Helinho

RB Bragantino · F

7.6

Match Events

15'

Renzo Saravia

21'

Éverson

25'

Lucas Evangelista↳ Helinho

33'

42'

44'

46'

46'

Nathan Mendes← Jadsom

46'

Eduardo Sasha← Matheus Fernandes

48'

Igor Rabello← M. Zaracho

51'

Rodrigo Battaglia

65'

Pedrinho← Alisson

69'

CaduGoal cancelled

70'

M. Lemos← Rômulo

71'

B. Palacios← Cadu

77'

Vinicius← Helinho

81'

Juninho Capixaba

81'

Gustavinho← Lucas Evangelista

85'

Bruno Fuchs

87'

Lincoln← Juninho Capixaba

89'

90+8'

90+5'

90'

90+10'

90+10'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RBAtletico-MG

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots10

1.18Expected Goals (xG)1.01

8Corners5

17Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target4

7Off Target2

3Blocked4

7Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

421Total Passes342

340Accurate Passes248

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

17Fouls18

5Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2