Atletico-MG 3–0 RB Bragantino: Result & Stats

Atletico-MG

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

RB Bragantino

Hulk 78'

Cadu 52'

Deyverson 39'

9/22/2024

Serie A · Round 27Arena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Atletico-MG45%

×Draw25%

RB Bragantino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchRB Bragantino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.19

Atletico-MG

1.52

RB Bragantino

1.19

Atletico-MG creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.37

creates per match

1.22

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Atletico-MG

1.37

RB Bragantino

1.22

allows per match

Atletico-MG

1.17

RB Bragantino

1.67

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.30scores more

RB Bragantino-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

RB Bragantino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

70%

Atletico-MG or RB Bragantino

75%

Draw or RB Bragantino

55%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

22%

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

78%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

45%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

20%

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

70%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

33%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

60%

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

RB Bragantino away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.67 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.37 + RB Bragantino defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

RB Bragantino attack 1.22 + Atletico-MG defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

45%

level

25%

RB Bragantino scores more

30%

Atletico-MG at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Deyverson

Atletico-MG · F

8.2

Match Events

39'

Deyverson↳ Rubens

46'

Matheus Fernandes← Raul

46'

Lincoln← Jhon Jhon

46'

H. Mosquera← Vinicius

52'

Cadu↳ Igor Gomes

63'

Eduardo Santos← Guilherme

64'

Arthur Sousa← A. Hurtado

70'

Arthur Sousa

74'

Gustavo Scarpa← Igor Gomes

74'

Bernard← B. Palacios

75'

Hulk← Cadu

78'

Hulk↳ Deyverson

81'

Alan Kardec← Deyverson

81'

Paulo Vitor← A. Franco

82'

Eduardo Santos

84'

Éverson

85'

Matheus Fernandes

89'

Arthur SousaPenalty confirmed

90+3'

Lyanco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGRB

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots8

2.48Expected Goals (xG)0.56

4Corners2

14Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots8

8On Target3

5Off Target3

0Blocked2

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

381Total Passes376

288Accurate Passes283

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Serie A: Atletico-MG 3–0 RB Bragantino

Atletico-MG beat RB Bragantino 3-0 in Serie A on September 22, 2024.

Goals: Deyverson (39'), Cadu (52'), Hulk (78').

Atletico-MG controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Atletico-MG 3–0 RB Bragantino