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RB Bragantino U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
Filipe 90+1'
Chrystian 74'
5/17/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4CT do Red Bull Bragantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

RB Bragantino U2050%
×Draw23%
Corinthians U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U20
1.81
Corinthians U20
1.25

RB Bragantino U20 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20
2.42
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20
1.04
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw
74%
RB Bragantino U20 or Corinthians U20
77%
Draw or Corinthians U20
50%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
28%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
84%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
54%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
27%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
71%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
36%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.81

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more
50%
level
23%
Corinthians U20 scores more
26%

RB Bragantino U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
Chrystian
90+1'
Filipe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Bragantino U20 vs Corinthians U20

RB Bragantino U20 beat Corinthians U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2025.

Goals: Chrystian (74'), Filipe (90+1').

The match was played at CT do Red Bull Bragantino in Atibaia, São Paulo.