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Corinthians U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
Leo Mana 45'
Biro 39'
Giovane 23'
Pedrinho 8'
Luciano 50'
3/16/2023Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Dr. Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Corinthians U2037%
×Draw25%
RB Bragantino U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
1.42
RB Bragantino U20
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 41 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
1.60
RB Bragantino U20
1.56

allows per match

Corinthians U20
1.35
RB Bragantino U20
1.24

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
62%
Corinthians U20 or RB Bragantino U20
75%
Draw or RB Bragantino U20
63%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
17%
RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
76%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
41%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
17%
RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
77%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
43%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
49%
RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 1.60 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

RB Bragantino U20 attack 1.56 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
37%
level
25%
RB Bragantino U20 scores more
38%

RB Bragantino U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Pedrinho
23'
Giovane
39'
Biro
45'
Leo Mana
50'
Luciano
82'
Luciano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians U20 vs RB Bragantino U20

Corinthians U20 beat RB Bragantino U20 4-1 in Brasileiro U20 A on March 16, 2023.

Goals: Pedrinho (8'), Giovane (23'), Biro (39'), Leo Mana (45'), Luciano (50').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte in São Paulo, São Paulo.