Rayong FC 1–4 Ratchaburi: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Ratchaburi

Bruno Catanhede 45+5'

T. Tanaka 68'

N. Rakotoharimalala 57'

C. Dépres 24', 5'

2/22/2025

League #296 · Round 23WHA Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rayong FC36%

×Draw24%

Ratchaburi39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchRatchaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.52

Rayong FC

1.45

Ratchaburi

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 80 away

1.35

creates per match

1.34

1.70

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.35

Ratchaburi

1.34

allows per match

Rayong FC

1.70

Ratchaburi

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Ratchaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

61%

Rayong FC or Ratchaburi

76%

Draw or Ratchaburi

64%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

17%

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

77%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

42%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

18%

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

78%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

45%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

48%

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.35 + Ratchaburi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ratchaburi attack 1.34 + Rayong FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rayong FC scores more

36%

level

24%

Ratchaburi scores more

39%

Ratchaburi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

C. Dépres

Ratchaburi · F

9.5

Match Events

5'

C. Dépres

21'

Guntapon KeereeleangPenalty cancelled

24'

C. Dépres↳ J. Kaewprom

37'

Bruno Catanhede← G. Keereeleang

45+5'

Bruno Catanhede↳ A. Boodjinda

46'

K. Kullapha← Y. Namuangrak

46'

J. Lucero← H. Katano

57'

N. Rakotoharimalala↳ J. Kaewprom

58'

John Lucero

61'

T. Tanaka← N. Rakotoharimalala

67'

Bruno Cantanhede

68'

T. Tanaka↳ J. Curran

69'

J. Batchari← Bruno Catanhede

75'

P. Kaminthong← Lwin Moe Aung

77'

G. Mutombo← J. Khemdee

77'

A. Sorada← K. Chiamudom

77'

S. Chakkuprasart← J. Kaewprom

84'

F. Bolkiah← Tana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RayongRatchaburi

Overview

40%Possession60%

18Total Shots15

4Corners3

6Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots15

5On Target9

9Off Target5

4Blocked1

12Inside Box9

6Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

331Total Passes504

236Accurate Passes417

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0