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Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC — League #296 2026

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
C. Poomkaew 90'
C. Dépres 13'
10/5/2024League #296League #296 · Round 9Dragon Solar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ratchaburi60%
×Draw21%
Rayong FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
2.00
Rayong FC
1.00

Ratchaburi creates 100% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
1.66
Rayong FC
0.95

allows per match

Ratchaburi
1.05
Rayong FC
2.35

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
82%
Ratchaburi or Rayong FC
79%
Draw or Rayong FC
40%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
36%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
86%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
59%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
32%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
63%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
26%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
77%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 82 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 1.66 + Rayong FC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rayong FC attack 0.95 + Ratchaburi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
60%
level
21%
Rayong FC scores more
18%

Ratchaburi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
K. PhatomakkakulRatchaburiRatchaburi · G
7.9

Match Events

13'
C. Dépres↳ G. Mutombo
18'
Siwakorn Jakkuprasat
46'
S. Peenagatapho← J. Curran
46'
K. Puspakom← J. Batchari
46'
R. Ito← David Cuerva
56'
Stênio Junior
61'
Jonathan Khemdee
62'
M. Mara← Tana
67'
P. Kaminthong← R. Janchaichit
72'
Wasusiwakit Phosririt
76'
T. Pholjuang← U. Samarnthai
77'
A. Promrak← G. Mutombo
80'
Kanokpon Buspakom
80'
Kanokpon BuspakomCard upgrade
86'
Kampol Pathomakkakul
89'
C. Poomkaew← T. Tanaka
89'
Kim Ji-Min← C. Dépres
90'
A. Boodjinda← Yashir Islame
90'
C. Poomkaew↳ J. Kaewprom

Possession

56%Ratchaburi

Shots

14Ratchaburi

Pass accuracy

51%Ratchaburi

Statistics

RatchaburiRayong
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots15
6Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots15
7On Target5
4Off Target5
3Blocked5
11Inside Box7
3Outside Box8
Passing
56%Possession44%
443Total Passes353
390Accurate Passes299
88%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

League #296: Ratchaburi 2–0 Rayong FC

Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 2-0 in League #296 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: C. Dépres (13'), C. Poomkaew (90').

Ratchaburi controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Dragon Solar Park in Ratchaburi.