Rayong FC 1–0 Lampang FC: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lampang FC

8/12/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 1Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Rayong FC47%

×Draw25%

Lampang FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchLampang FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.17

Rayong FC

1.60

Lampang FC

1.17

Rayong FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 92 away

1.67

creates per match

1.41

0.92

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.67

Lampang FC

1.41

allows per match

Rayong FC

0.92

Lampang FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Lampang FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

72%

Rayong FC or Lampang FC

75%

Draw or Lampang FC

53%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

24%

Lampang FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

80%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

47%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

22%

Lampang FC 1+ goals

69%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

33%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

63%

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.53 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.67 + Lampang FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lampang FC attack 1.41 + Rayong FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayong FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Lampang FC scores more

28%

Rayong FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff