Lampang FC 2–6 Rayong FC: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

2 – 6

Rayong FC

9/29/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 32Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Lampang FC44%

×Draw25%

Rayong FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchRayong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

Lampang FC

1.50

Rayong FC

1.22

Lampang FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 74 away

1.51

creates per match

1.43

1.01

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.51

Rayong FC

1.43

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

Rayong FC

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Rayong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

69%

Lampang FC or Rayong FC

75%

Draw or Rayong FC

56%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

21%

Rayong FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

78%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

44%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

19%

Rayong FC 1+ goals

70%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

34%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

59%

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.49 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.51 + Rayong FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rayong FC attack 1.43 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lampang FC scores more

44%

level

25%

Rayong FC scores more

31%

Lampang FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff