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Rayong FC vs Chiangmai United — Thai League 2 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
3 – 1
Chiangmai United
Chiangmai United
10/19/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Rayong Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Rayong FC47%
×Draw26%
Chiangmai United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
1.48
Chiangmai United
1.07

Rayong FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 103 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
1.57
Chiangmai United
1.19

allows per match

Rayong FC
0.96
Chiangmai United
1.39

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Chiangmai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
73%
Rayong FC or Chiangmai United
74%
Draw or Chiangmai United
53%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
23%
Chiangmai United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
77%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
43%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
19%
Chiangmai United 1+ goals
66%
Chiangmai United 2+ goals
29%
Chiangmai United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
63%
Chiangmai United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Chiangmai United away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Chiangmai United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chiangmai United attack 1.19 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayong FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Chiangmai United scores more
27%

Rayong FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayong FC vs Chiangmai United

Rayong FC beat Chiangmai United 3-1 in Thai League 2 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Rayong Stadium (Rayong).