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Chiangmai United vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai United
Chiangmai United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
11/21/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 14700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Chiangmai United44%
×Draw25%
Rayong FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai United
1.56
Rayong FC
1.27

Chiangmai United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chiangmai United
1.67
Rayong FC
1.45

allows per match

Chiangmai United
1.09
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Chiangmai United+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai United ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chiangmai United or draw
69%
Chiangmai United or Rayong FC
75%
Draw or Rayong FC
56%

Winning margin

Chiangmai United wins by 2+
22%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chiangmai United 1+ goals
79%
Chiangmai United 2+ goals
46%
Chiangmai United 3+ goals
21%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
72%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
36%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)
59%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.09 · 104 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai United attack 1.67 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Chiangmai United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chiangmai United scores more
44%
level
25%
Rayong FC scores more
31%

Chiangmai United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chiangmai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai United vs Rayong FC

Chiangmai United and Rayong FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on November 21, 2022.

The match was played at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Chiang Mai.