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Rayon Sports vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Rayon Sports
Rayon Sports
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
10/11/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 6Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rayon Sports57%
×Draw26%
Etoile de l'Est18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayon Sports
1.55
Etoile de l'Est
0.73

Rayon Sports creates 112% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

Rayon Sports
1.44
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

Rayon Sports
0.76
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

Rayon Sports+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayon Sports ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rayon Sports or draw
82%
Rayon Sports or Etoile de l'Est
74%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
43%

Winning margin

Rayon Sports wins by 2+
30%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rayon Sports 1+ goals
79%
Rayon Sports 2+ goals
46%
Rayon Sports 3+ goals
20%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
52%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
17%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rayon Sports (draw refunded)
76%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayon Sports at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.76 · 95 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayon Sports attack 1.44 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Rayon Sports defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rayon Sports scores more
57%
level
26%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
18%

Rayon Sports at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rayon Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Rayon Sports 2–1 Etoile de l'Est

Rayon Sports beat Etoile de l'Est 2-1 in National Soccer League on October 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.