Etoile de l'Est 1–1 Rayon Sports: Result & Stats

Etoile de l'Est

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayon Sports

3/6/2022

National Soccer League · Round 20Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile de l'Est28%

×Draw30%

Rayon Sports42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile de l'EstExpected goals in this matchRayon Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.17

Etoile de l'Est

0.88

Rayon Sports

1.17

Rayon Sports creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 97 away

0.83

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Etoile de l'Est

0.83

Rayon Sports

1.24

allows per match

Etoile de l'Est

1.10

Rayon Sports

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Rayon Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de l'Est ↓

Rayon Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Etoile de l'Est or draw

58%

Etoile de l'Est or Rayon Sports

70%

Draw or Rayon Sports

72%

Winning margin

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+

9%

Rayon Sports wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals

59%

Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals

22%

Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals

6%

Rayon Sports 1+ goals

69%

Rayon Sports 2+ goals

33%

Rayon Sports 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)

39%

Rayon Sports (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de l'Est at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Rayon Sports away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.93 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.83 + Rayon Sports defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Rayon Sports attack 1.24 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Etoile de l'Est scores more

28%

level

30%

Rayon Sports scores more

42%

Rayon Sports at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rayon Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff