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Rayo Zuliano vs Portuguesa FC — Primera División 2018

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
2/28/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Zuliano42%
×Draw28%
Portuguesa FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.28
Portuguesa FC
1.02

Rayo Zuliano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 137 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.20
Portuguesa FC
0.91

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.12
Portuguesa FC
1.36

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Portuguesa FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
70%
Rayo Zuliano or Portuguesa FC
72%
Draw or Portuguesa FC
58%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
19%
Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
72%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
37%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
14%
Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
64%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
27%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
59%
Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.20 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Portuguesa FC attack 0.91 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
42%
level
28%
Portuguesa FC scores more
30%

Rayo Zuliano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Zuliano vs Portuguesa FC

Rayo Zuliano beat Portuguesa FC 1-0 in Primera División on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero in Maracaibo.