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Portuguesa FC vs Rayo Zuliano — Primera División 2018

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
7/17/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Portuguesa FC47%
×Draw26%
Rayo Zuliano27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.47
Rayo Zuliano
1.05

Portuguesa FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 50 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
1.10
Rayo Zuliano
1.06

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.04
Rayo Zuliano
1.84

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Rayo Zuliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
73%
Portuguesa FC or Rayo Zuliano
74%
Draw or Rayo Zuliano
53%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
23%
Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
77%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
43%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
18%
Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
65%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
28%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
63%
Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.06 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Rayo Zuliano scores more
27%

Portuguesa FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Portuguesa FC 1–2 Rayo Zuliano

Rayo Zuliano beat Portuguesa FC 2-1 in Primera División on July 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.