Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rayo Zuliano vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
9/21/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Zuliano41%
×Draw28%
Metropolitanos FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.29
Metropolitanos FC
1.10

Rayo Zuliano creates 17% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 140 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.20
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.12
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
68%
Rayo Zuliano or Metropolitanos FC
72%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
59%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
18%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
72%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
37%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
14%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
67%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
30%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
56%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.20 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
41%
level
28%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
32%

Rayo Zuliano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Zuliano vs Metropolitanos FC

Rayo Zuliano and Metropolitanos FC drew 2-2 in Primera División on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero in Maracaibo.