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Metropolitanos FC vs Rayo Zuliano — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
4/26/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Metropolitanos FC51%
×Draw24%
Rayo Zuliano25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.67
Rayo Zuliano
1.08

Metropolitanos FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 50 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Rayo Zuliano
1.06

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Rayo Zuliano
1.84

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Rayo Zuliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
75%
Metropolitanos FC or Rayo Zuliano
76%
Draw or Rayo Zuliano
49%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
27%
Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
81%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
50%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
23%
Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
66%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
29%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
67%
Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.06 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
51%
level
24%
Rayo Zuliano scores more
25%

Metropolitanos FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Metropolitanos FC 4–2 Rayo Zuliano

Metropolitanos FC beat Rayo Zuliano 4-2 in Primera División on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.