Rayo Zuliano 2–0 Llaneros de Guanare

Rayo Zuliano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Llaneros de Guanare

5/29/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 9Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Rayo Zuliano51%

×Draw27%

Llaneros de Guanare22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo ZulianoExpected goals in this matchLlaneros de Guanare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.84

Rayo Zuliano

1.43

Llaneros de Guanare

0.84

Rayo Zuliano creates 70% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 43 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

0.76

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano

1.33

Llaneros de Guanare

0.93

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano

0.76

Llaneros de Guanare

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw

78%

Rayo Zuliano or Llaneros de Guanare

73%

Draw or Llaneros de Guanare

49%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+

25%

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals

76%

Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals

42%

Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals

17%

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals

57%

Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals

21%

Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)

70%

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.33 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Rayo Zuliano defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more

51%

level

27%

Llaneros de Guanare scores more

22%

Rayo Zuliano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff