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Llaneros de Guanare vs Rayo Zuliano — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
6/12/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 10Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare39%
×Draw27%
Rayo Zuliano35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Rayo Zuliano
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 21 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Rayo Zuliano
1.00

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Rayo Zuliano
1.33

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Rayo Zuliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
65%
Llaneros de Guanare or Rayo Zuliano
73%
Draw or Rayo Zuliano
61%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
18%
Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
38%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%
Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
71%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
35%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
53%
Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.00 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
39%
level
27%
Rayo Zuliano scores more
35%

Llaneros de Guanare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Rayo Zuliano

Rayo Zuliano beat Llaneros de Guanare 3-2 in Segunda División on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.