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Rayo Zuliano vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Copa Venezuela 2024

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
6/11/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group EEstadio de Fútbol Ludgero Correia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rayo Zuliano54%
×Draw24%
Fundación Lara Deportiva22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.71
Fundación Lara Deportiva
0.98

Rayo Zuliano creates 74% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.75
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.33

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
0.63
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.67

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
78%
Rayo Zuliano or Fundación Lara Deportiva
76%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
46%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
30%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
82%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
51%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
24%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
62%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
72%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.75 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.33 + Rayo Zuliano defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
54%
level
24%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
22%

Rayo Zuliano at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Zuliano vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

Rayo Zuliano beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 2-0 in Copa Venezuela on June 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Ludgero Correia in Falcón.