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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Rayo Zuliano — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
7/3/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 12Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva44%
×Draw27%
Rayo Zuliano29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.39
Rayo Zuliano
1.06

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 31% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Rayo Zuliano
1.00

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Rayo Zuliano
1.33

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Rayo Zuliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
71%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Rayo Zuliano
73%
Draw or Rayo Zuliano
56%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
21%
Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
75%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
40%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
16%
Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
65%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
29%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
61%
Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.00 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
44%
level
27%
Rayo Zuliano scores more
29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundación Lara Deportiva 1–1 Rayo Zuliano

Fundación Lara Deportiva and Rayo Zuliano drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.