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Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
0 – 0
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
9/19/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Rayo Zuliano56%
×Draw24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.69
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
0.89

Rayo Zuliano creates 90% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 44 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.33
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
0.76
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
80%
Rayo Zuliano or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
76%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
44%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
82%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
50%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
74%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.33 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Rayo Zuliano defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
56%
level
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
20%

Rayo Zuliano at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Rayo Zuliano and Deportivo JBL del Zulia drew 0-0 in Segunda División on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso in Maracaibo.