Deportivo JBL del Zulia 0–1 Rayo Zuliano

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

FT

0 – 1

Rayo Zuliano

7/30/2021

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia39%

×Draw26%

Rayo Zuliano35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo JBL del ZuliaExpected goals in this matchRayo Zuliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.30

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.38

Rayo Zuliano

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 21 away

1.42

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.42

Rayo Zuliano

1.00

allows per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.60

Rayo Zuliano

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo JBL del Zulia ↓

Rayo Zuliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or draw

65%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or Rayo Zuliano

74%

Draw or Rayo Zuliano

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+

18%

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals

16%

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals

73%

Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals

37%

Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)

52%

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.42 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.00 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more

39%

level

26%

Rayo Zuliano scores more

35%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo JBL del Zulia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff