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Rayo Zuliano vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
9/23/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rayo Zuliano45%
×Draw26%
Angostura FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.46
Angostura FC
1.10

Rayo Zuliano creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.20
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.12
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
71%
Rayo Zuliano or Angostura FC
74%
Draw or Angostura FC
55%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
22%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
77%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
43%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
18%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
67%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
30%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
61%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.20 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
45%
level
26%
Angostura FC scores more
29%

Rayo Zuliano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Zuliano vs Angostura FC

Rayo Zuliano beat Angostura FC 2-1 in Primera División on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero in Maracaibo.