Angostura FC 0–1 Rayo Zuliano: Result & Stats

Angostura FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Zuliano

8/26/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Angostura FC46%

×Draw26%

Rayo Zuliano28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angostura FCExpected goals in this matchRayo Zuliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Angostura FC

1.48

Rayo Zuliano

1.09

Angostura FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 50 away

1.13

creates per match

1.06

1.13

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Angostura FC

1.13

Rayo Zuliano

1.06

allows per match

Angostura FC

1.13

Rayo Zuliano

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Rayo Zuliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw

72%

Angostura FC or Rayo Zuliano

74%

Draw or Rayo Zuliano

54%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+

23%

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals

77%

Angostura FC 2+ goals

43%

Angostura FC 3+ goals

19%

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals

66%

Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals

30%

Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)

62%

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.13 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.06 + Angostura FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Angostura FC scores more

46%

level

26%

Rayo Zuliano scores more

28%

Angostura FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff