Rayo Vallecano W 1–2 Deportivo Alavés W

Rayo Vallecano W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Alavés W

S. Bulatovic 82'

Sanadri 90'

L. Chamorro 35'

9/12/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 2Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rayo Vallecano W55%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Alavés W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.28

Rayo Vallecano W

2.04

Deportivo Alavés W

1.28

Rayo Vallecano W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.22

creates per match

0.93

1.62

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.22

Deportivo Alavés W

0.93

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.62

Deportivo Alavés W

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano W ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano W or draw

76%

Rayo Vallecano W or Deportivo Alavés W

79%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés W

45%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+

32%

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals

87%

Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals

60%

Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals

33%

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rayo Vallecano W scores more

55%

level

21%

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

24%

Rayo Vallecano W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

M. Dieguez

35'

L. Chamorro

45+2'

I. Ponciano

52'

Alba← Carla Armengol

56'

P. Fernandez

62'

Y. Tanaka← Pilar García

62'

Isadora Freitas← Iris Ponciano

63'

Y. Aedo← Pauleta

70'

Sanadri← Sara Carrillo

79'

Carla Bautista← Patricia Hidalgo

79'

Paula Andújar← María Bores

82'

S. Bulatovic↳ Y. Tanaka

87'

Nerea Nevado← Ane Miren

88'

Naima← L. Chamorro

90'

Sanadri↳ Nerea Nevado

Rayo

Deportivo

1

14

22

2

5

12

6

7

▼

Miren

18

⚽

▼

Chamorro

11

▼

Armengol

19

▼

Carrillo

1

Larqué

18

Sáez

22

▼

Bores

20

Struck

4

▼

García

21

Leles

6

Fernández

14

▼

Pauleta

12

▼

Hidalgo

11

⚽

Bulatovic

7

▼

Ponciano

Manager: Miguel

62'▲Y. Tanaka←▼Pilar García

62'▲Isadora Freitas←▼Iris Ponciano

63'▲Y. Aedo←▼Pauleta

79'▲Carla Bautista←▼Patricia Hidalgo

79'▲Paula Andújar←▼María Bores

Rayo Vallecano W substitutes

8Tanaka9Freitas10Aedo19Bautista5Andújar13Goméz27Cabezas2Hayden3LaiaBallesté

Manager: Mikel Crespo

52'▲Alba←▼Carla Armengol

70'▲Sanadri←▼Sara Carrillo

87'▲Nerea Nevado←▼Ane Miren

88'▲Naima←▼L. Chamorro

Deportivo Alavés W substitutes

10Alba9Sanadri20Nevado17Naima26Queralt4Gaste23Ito25Henseler21Martínez