Deportivo Alavés W 3–1 Rayo Vallecano W

Deportivo Alavés W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rayo Vallecano W

Ane Miren 68'

Miku Ito 56'

L. Chamorro 50'

Isadora Freitas 16'

3/26/2022

Primera División Femenina · Round 25Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Alavés W47%

×Draw24%

Rayo Vallecano W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés WExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.24

Deportivo Alavés W

1.67

Rayo Vallecano W

1.24

Deportivo Alavés W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

1.23

creates per match

0.81

1.67

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.23

Rayo Vallecano W

0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.67

Rayo Vallecano W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés W or draw

72%

Deportivo Alavés W or Rayo Vallecano W

76%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano W

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

25%

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

23%

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals

71%

Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals

35%

Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

62%

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés W attack 1.23 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

47%

level

24%

Rayo Vallecano W scores more

28%

Deportivo Alavés W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Isadora Freitas↳ Pauleta

50'

L. Chamorro↳ Carla Armengol

56'

Miku Ito↳ Ane Miren

66'

S. Bulatovic← C. Struck

68'

Ane Miren↳ L. Chamorro

71'

Millene Cabral← Pauleta

72'

Gema Soliveres← Alba

74'

Y. Aedo

83'

Sara Carrillo← Carla Armengol

83'

Mery← L. Chamorro

84'

Claudia Cabezas← Iris Ponciano

89'

P. Garcia

90+2'

J. Clark← Miku Ito

Deportivo

Rayo

1

Larqué

18

Sáez

22

Bores

20

▼

3

10

4

6

14

A

▼

Pauleta

9

⚽

Freitas

7

▼

1

3

14

22

20

2

10

▼

Alba

7

⚽A

Miren

23

⚽

▼

Ito

18

⚽A

▼

Chamorro

11

A

▼

Armengol

Manager: Mikel Crespo

72'▲Gema Soliveres←▼Alba

83'▲Sara Carrillo←▼Carla Armengol

83'▲Mery←▼L. Chamorro

90+2'▲J. Clark←▼Miku Ito

Deportivo Alavés W substitutes

6Soliveres19Carrillo15Mery16Clark9Sanadri5Urru21Martínez12Facila25Henseler

Manager: Carlos Santiso

66'▲S. Bulatovic←▼C. Struck

71'▲Millene Cabral←▼Pauleta

84'▲Claudia Cabezas←▼Iris Ponciano

Rayo Vallecano W substitutes

11Bulatovic17Cabral27Cabezas5Andújar13Goméz21Leles8Tanaka