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Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2025

Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
Bebé 90+5'
E. Saveljich 17'
9/13/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rayo Vallecano61%
×Draw23%
Racing Santander16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano
1.77
Racing Santander
0.76

Rayo Vallecano creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano
2.00
Racing Santander
1.52

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano
0.00
Racing Santander
1.55

finishing

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw
84%
Rayo Vallecano or Racing Santander
77%
Draw or Racing Santander
39%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+
35%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals
83%
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals
53%
Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals
26%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
53%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
18%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)
80%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 2.00 + Racing Santander defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Racing Santander attack 1.52 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more
61%
level
23%
Racing Santander scores more
16%

Rayo Vallecano at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Adri EmbarbaRayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano · M
9.2

Match Events

11'
Martín Pascual
17'
E. Saveljich↳ Adri Embarba
23'
Aristote Nkaka
30'
Martín Pascual
30'
Martín Pascual
34'
Aristote Nkaka
34'
Aristote Nkaka
40'
Leonardo Ulloa
41'
A. Milić← José Ángel Pozo
53'
K. Yoda← Cejudo
53'
N. Marong← David Barral
71'
Tito← E. Saveljich
72'
R. Kitoko← Berto Cayarga
79'
Antonio Luna
84'
Óscar Valentín← Ó. Trejo
90+5'
Bebé↳ Adri Embarba

Possession

65%Rayo

Shots

21Rayo

Pass accuracy

56%Rayo

Statistics

RayoRacing
Overview
65%Possession35%
21Total Shots4
12Corners3
21Fouls16
Shots
21Total Shots4
4On Target0
8Off Target3
9Blocked1
9Inside Box1
12Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
417Total Passes222
357Accurate Passes151
86%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls16
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Segunda División: Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Racing Santander

Rayo Vallecano beat Racing Santander 2-0 in Segunda División on September 13, 2019.

Goals: E. Saveljich (17'), Bebé (90+5').

Rayo Vallecano controlled possession (65%) and registered 21 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid.