Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Santander vs Rayo Vallecano — Segunda División 2025

Racing Santander
Racing Santander
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Javi Siverio 44'
Mario Suárez 63' (pen)
Álvaro García 50'
7/20/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 42Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Racing Santander52%
×Draw23%
Rayo Vallecano24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander
1.78
Rayo Vallecano
1.13

Racing Santander creates 58% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 3 away

creates per match

Racing Santander
2.22
Rayo Vallecano
1.00

allows per match

Racing Santander
1.25
Rayo Vallecano
1.33

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Rayo Vallecano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw
76%
Racing Santander or Rayo Vallecano
77%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano
48%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+
29%
Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals
83%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
53%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
26%
Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals
68%
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals
31%
Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)
68%
Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Rayo Vallecano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 2.22 + Rayo Vallecano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.00 + Racing Santander defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Racing Santander scores more
52%
level
23%
Rayo Vallecano scores more
24%

Racing Santander at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Ó. TrejoRayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano · F
7.6

Match Events

41'
M. Suarez
44'
Javi Siverio↳ Nico Hidalgo
50'
Álvaro García↳ Juan Villar
57'
O. Valentin
59'
M. Ortiz
60'
Guillermo Fernández← Javi Siverio
63'
Mario SuárezPenalty
64'
Iñaki Olaortua← Jordi Figueras
64'
Marco Camús← Nando García
70'
J. A. Perez
71'
L. Advíncula← Isi Palazón
72'
A. Garcia
75'
E. Saveljich← Óscar Valentín
78'
David Barral← Jon Ander
78'
David Rodríguez← Abraham Minero
87'
Santi Comesaña← Juan Villar
90+2'
A. Catena

Possession

45%Racing

Shots

5Racing

Pass accuracy

47%Racing

Statistics

RacingRayo
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots20
3Corners6
13Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots20
1On Target6
2Off Target9
2Blocked5
3Inside Box11
2Outside Box9
Passing
45%Possession55%
295Total Passes360
199Accurate Passes271
67%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
5Offsides4

Match Recap: Racing Santander vs Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano beat Racing Santander 2-1 in Segunda División on July 20, 2020.

Goals: Javi Siverio (44'), Álvaro García (50'), Mario Suárez (63' pen).

Rayo Vallecano controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.