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Rayo Vallecano II vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II46%
×Draw25%
Pozuelo Alarcón29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.52
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.16

Rayo Vallecano II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
71%
Rayo Vallecano II or Pozuelo Alarcón
75%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
54%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
23%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
78%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
45%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
20%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
69%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
32%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
61%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
46%
level
25%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
29%

Rayo Vallecano II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Vallecano II 3 – 1 Pozuelo Alarcón

Rayo Vallecano II beat Pozuelo Alarcón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.