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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Rayo Vallecano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
2/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón40%
×Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.43
Rayo Vallecano II
1.29

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 11% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Rayo Vallecano II
1.36

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Rayo Vallecano II
1.53

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Rayo Vallecano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
66%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Rayo Vallecano II
74%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano II
60%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
19%
Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
76%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
42%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
17%
Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
72%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
37%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
54%
Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Rayo Vallecano II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.36 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
40%
level
26%
Rayo Vallecano II scores more
34%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pozuelo Alarcón 0 – 2 Rayo Vallecano II

Rayo Vallecano II beat Pozuelo Alarcón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.