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Rayo Vallecano II vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Móstoles
Móstoles
1/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II40%
×Draw25%
Móstoles35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.43
Móstoles
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 76 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
65%
Rayo Vallecano II or Móstoles
75%
Draw or Móstoles
60%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
19%
Móstoles wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
76%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
42%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
17%
Móstoles 1+ goals
74%
Móstoles 2+ goals
38%
Móstoles 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
53%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.43

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
40%
level
25%
Móstoles scores more
35%

Rayo Vallecano II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Móstoles

Móstoles beat Rayo Vallecano II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.