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Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Móstoles47%
×Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.60
Rayo Vallecano II
1.19

Móstoles creates 34% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 97 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Rayo Vallecano II
1.36

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Rayo Vallecano II
1.53

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Rayo Vallecano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
72%
Móstoles or Rayo Vallecano II
75%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano II
53%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
24%
Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
80%
Móstoles 2+ goals
47%
Móstoles 3+ goals
22%
Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
70%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
33%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
62%
Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Rayo Vallecano II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.36 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Móstoles scores more
47%
level
25%
Rayo Vallecano II scores more
28%

Móstoles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Móstoles 2 – 0 Rayo Vallecano II

Móstoles beat Rayo Vallecano II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.