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Rayo Vallecano II vs Cala Pozuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II47%
×Draw24%
Cala Pozuelo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.71
Cala Pozuelo
1.29

Rayo Vallecano II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
Cala Pozuelo
1.24

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
Cala Pozuelo
1.65

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Cala Pozuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
71%
Rayo Vallecano II or Cala Pozuelo
76%
Draw or Cala Pozuelo
53%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
25%
Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
82%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
51%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
24%
Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
72%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
37%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
62%
Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
47%
level
24%
Cala Pozuelo scores more
29%

Rayo Vallecano II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 0–1 Cala Pozuelo

Cala Pozuelo beat Rayo Vallecano II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.