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Cala Pozuelo vs Rayo Vallecano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo36%
×Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cala Pozuelo
1.33
Rayo Vallecano II
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 97 away

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.12
Rayo Vallecano II
1.36

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.41
Rayo Vallecano II
1.53

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

Rayo Vallecano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw
61%
Cala Pozuelo or Rayo Vallecano II
74%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano II
64%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
16%
Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
74%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
38%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
15%
Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
75%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
40%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
48%
Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Rayo Vallecano II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.36 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more
36%
level
26%
Rayo Vallecano II scores more
39%

Rayo Vallecano II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Cala Pozuelo 2–3 Rayo Vallecano II

Rayo Vallecano II beat Cala Pozuelo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo in Pozuelo de Alarcón.