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Rayo Majadahonda vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
4/3/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 1Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda47%
×Draw32%
Mérida AD22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.13
Mérida AD
0.67

Rayo Majadahonda creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.08
Mérida AD
0.75

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
0.58
Mérida AD
1.17

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
78%
Rayo Majadahonda or Mérida AD
68%
Draw or Mérida AD
53%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
20%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
68%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
31%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
11%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
49%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
15%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
68%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.08 + Mérida AD defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Mérida AD attack 0.75 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
47%
level
32%
Mérida AD scores more
22%

Rayo Majadahonda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Mérida AD

Rayo Majadahonda beat Mérida AD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.