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Mérida AD vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
4/25/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mérida AD40%
×Draw33%
Rayo Majadahonda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.00
Rayo Majadahonda
0.75

Mérida AD creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
0.83
Rayo Majadahonda
1.08

allows per match

Mérida AD
0.42
Rayo Majadahonda
1.17

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
73%
Mérida AD or Rayo Majadahonda
67%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
60%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
16%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
63%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
26%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
8%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
53%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
17%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
60%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 0.83 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.08 + Mérida AD defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mérida AD scores more
40%
level
33%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
27%

Mérida AD at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Mérida AD 1–1 Rayo Majadahonda

Mérida AD and Rayo Majadahonda drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.