Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Marino de Luanco

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Marino de Luanco

11/3/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda50%

×Draw27%

Marino de Luanco23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchMarino de Luanco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.88

Rayo Majadahonda

1.43

Marino de Luanco

0.88

Rayo Majadahonda creates 63% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

1.17

creates per match

0.69

1.07

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Marino de Luanco

0.69

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Marino de Luanco

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Marino de Luanco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

77%

Rayo Majadahonda or Marino de Luanco

73%

Draw or Marino de Luanco

50%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

25%

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

76%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

42%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

17%

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

59%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

22%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

68%

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

50%

level

27%

Marino de Luanco scores more

23%

Rayo Majadahonda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff