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Marino de Luanco vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
CANC
00:00
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Marino de Luanco46%
×Draw29%
Rayo Majadahonda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
1.25
Rayo Majadahonda
0.84

Marino de Luanco creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 72 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.04
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.73
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
75%
Marino de Luanco or Rayo Majadahonda
71%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
54%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
21%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
71%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
36%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
13%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
57%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
21%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
65%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
46%
level
29%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
25%

Marino de Luanco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marino de Luanco vs Rayo Majadahonda — Match Preview

Marino de Luanco face Rayo Majadahonda on March 22, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Marino de Luanco host Rayo Majadahonda at Estadi Municipal de Miramar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.