Rayo Majadahonda vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Rayo Majadahonda52%
Las Rozas17%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rayo Majadahonda creates 123% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under76
- Over24
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No72
- Yes28
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rayo Majadahonda ↓
Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches
Las Rozas away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.08 + Las Rozas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16
Las Rozas attack 0.46 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.52
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Rayo Majadahonda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Badajoz
SS ReyesRayo Majadahonda
Real Madrid II
Atlético Baleares
Extremadura
Melilla
Villanovense
Internacional de Madrid
CF Talavera
Socuéllamos
Poblense
Mérida AD
Atlético Madrid II
VillarrubiaLas Rozas
Navalcarnero
Don Benito
Getafe II
VillarrobledoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rayo Majadahonda host Las Rozas on Sunday, 28 February 2021 at 11:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Las Rozas
Rayo Majadahonda and Las Rozas drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 28, 2021.
The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.