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Rayo Majadahonda vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
CANC
00:00
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
3/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda37%
×Draw29%
Las Rozas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.12
Las Rozas
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Las Rozas
1.00

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Las Rozas
1.07

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
67%
Rayo Majadahonda or Las Rozas
71%
Draw or Las Rozas
63%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
15%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
67%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
31%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
10%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
65%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
28%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
53%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Las Rozas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Las Rozas attack 1.00 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
37%
level
29%
Las Rozas scores more
33%

Rayo Majadahonda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Majadahonda face Las Rozas (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Rayo Majadahonda hosting Las Rozas. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rayo Majadahonda host Las Rozas at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.